A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
