Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
